David Goldman, Teacher

The 2016 Hillsdale College Alaska cruise aimed to educate, and so it did. I learned more from David Goldman about Erdoğan, Turkey and the Middle East in an hour than from anything I’ve read over the last five years.

David Goldman, a New York economist, is a columnist for First Things magazine and writes under the name “Spengler” for Asia Times Online. Previously he was the global head of credit strategy for Credit Suisse, and head of fixed income research at Bank of America. In addition to his journalism and financial work, he was a regular on CNBC.

The Book

Goldman’s book is entitled, How Civilizations Die (and Why Islam is Dying Too). Reviewers praised it:

“David Goldman muses on population trends and religion with a breathtaking depth, originality, and panache. Some of his startling but documented predictions: Europe is in its death throes. Muslim demographic collapse will undercut Islamic triumphalism. The United States and Israel will emerge triumphant. And that’s just the start.” —Daniel Pipes, President of the Middle East Forum and Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University

“Goldman has explored the political implications of demography with rare insight [to produce] a mind-expanding peek into the likely political future of our planet.” —Mary Ann Glendon, Learned Hand Professor of Law, Harvard University

Mr. Erdoğan’s Coup

The Result…

Whether planned by Erdoğan or his opposition, the coup attempt worked out well for the bossman. Der Spiegel described the aftermath (Fethullah Gülen is Erdoğan’s convenient straw man, an exiled dissenter holed up in Pennsylvania)…

Erdoğan arrested over 2000 soldiers and fired several tens of thousands of civil servants. Among them are 36,200 teachers and officials in the Education Ministry, 8000 police officers and almost 3000 judges, many of them alleged followers of Gülen. Forty-seven provincial governors resigned, as did the deans of all of Turkey’s universities. Academics and scientists may no longer leave the country. Now, though, in the wake of the failed coup, what remains of public opposition is likely to disappear entirely.

Some might say in relation to Erdoğan something like Henry the Young King said about Thomas Becket: “Who will rid me of this pestilent priest?” He is the definition of a loose cannon. Nobody really knows how deep is his commitment to the Islamic state he says he favors. How to get rid of Erdoğan? Goldman said it was really quite simple: stop looking upon Turkey as a stalwart NATO ally; and stop loaning him money. Of course this would take, er, courage. Maybe someone will find it.

Churchill’s Wisdom

One area of political agreement exists between America’s divided Left and Right. It is that we’ll never make the Middle East over in our image. So what’s the strategy? Well, there is energy independence—which now seems to be accomplished. Beyond that, there’s the strategy Winston Churchill enunciated in 1958 (Mr. Putin seems already to have read his Churchill)….

The Middle East is one of the hardest-hearted areas in the world. It has always been fought over, and peace has only reigned when a major power has established firm influence and shown that it would maintain its will. Your friends must be supported with every vigour and if necessary they must be avenged. Force, or perhaps force and bribery, are the only things that will be respected. It is very sad, but we had all better recognise it. At present our friendship is not valued, and our enmity is not feared. —Churchill by Himself, 439

So. Support your friends, by bribery if necessary. Avoid wars with your enemies, but don’t make life easy for them. At present we hold our collective noses over El-Sisi in Egypt, but declare Erdoğan a loyal friend, and frequently loan him lots of money.

“You’re doing it just backwards,” said our Turkish waiter.

The 2016 Hillsdale College cruise of southwest Alaska aboard Crystal Serenity (27 July-3 August) provided an impressive visit to a spectacular state. Accompanying the fine dining and entertainment was a crew which could not have done more. Crystal Cruises seems to own all the highest ratings in the business, and it’s easy to see why. There’s no separate bar bill, and they’ll deliver up to two bottles a day to your stateroom. No one could drink this much! Tips are included, nobody duns you for handouts, and you’re not presented with a list of “estimated gratuities” on your last day aboard.

Crystal ships offer more than average public space. We had only 1000 passengers (much less than capacity), aboard an 820 foot, 69,000-ton ship), so it never felt congested. As they used to say at Brooklands racing circuit: “the right crowd and no crowding.” More passengers are usual, however. On 16 August Serenity set sail to Alaska again with 1700 customers on a 28-day cruise from Vancouver to New York via the Northwest Passage. She is the largest ship ever to navigate that course.

Fun Afloat

Aside from the attentive staff and perfect organization, there was nightly entertainment at four or five different venues. Bar room piano player Perry Grant kept us at the Avenue Saloon 9:30-12:30 every night, as he played, sang and interviewed guests. Perry has a touch: never too bawdy, always fun. He seems to know hundreds of tunes, hardly ever repeats one. For those of “a certain age,” it’s a memorable combination. We understand he has a small army of followers, who sign on wherever he goes. Here’s Perry’s version of “My Way.”

(We couldn’t get enough. This one’s for you, and you know who you are….)

The route began from Vancouver to Juneau, Alaska’s capital. There was a sea voyage the Hubbard Glacier, then to the Alaska towns of Hoonah, Skagway and Ketchikan. We reentered British Columbia via Nanaimo, and ended in Vancouver. Well organized excursions (extra cost) were available, but you could easily pass a day walking around a town, or just relaxing on the ship.

We aren’t cruise folk. Viking’s Danube River cruise, with 180 aboard, is more our style. We confess to hankering for a canal barge for twelve, a big ketch for six, or the Claymore II, supply ship for Pitcairn Island, which takes three days to float six passengers to the storied hideaway of Fletcher Christian and a handful of rebels after the Mutiny on the Bounty. That we enjoyed a “big” cruise speaks volumes of Crystal quality and Hillsdale’s organizing.

Hillsdale Seminars

The College’s educational program is a great way to while away days at sea. Our speakers were an eclectic mix. Hillsdale President Larry Arnn always has worthwhile things to say to thoughtful people. Worrisome things these days, with so many uncertainties facing America and the world. Victor Davis Hanson spoke about Athens and Sparta, eloquently and well, not without parallels to modern problems. John Steele Gordon, the historian and columnist, spoke about his illuminating book on the Washington Monument and other obelisks.

Screenwriter Michael Walsh said movies don’t really start off to be liberal or conservative. If you want to write one of those, you’re on the wrong track. What matters—despite Hollywood’s reputation as a hotbed of wealthy lefties who can bear any tax burden levied on the rest of us—is the story line: “The Godfather could have been set a million years BC and would still have been a success because of the story line.”

Walsh incidentally wrote a great prequel/sequel to Casablanca called As Time Goes By, which all Casablanca fans should read. The prequel explains why Rick Blaine(who grew up in New York as Itzhak Baline) could not return to his home town. The sequel describes how Elsa, Victor, Louie, Sam and Rick  helped to assassinate Reinhard Heydrich, “the Butcher of Prague.”  So now you know how that happened.

David Goldman was so riveting on the demographics of Islam and the Middle East that I bought his book. Prompted by a Turkish waiter, I also asked him about Turkey, which is worthy of a separate post.

For information on future Hillsdale cruises, click here.